As Texas Re-Opens, the October Dates For Pate Are Still a Go!
As Texas goes past the halfway mark of its phased re-opening after the lockdown for COVID-19, officials of federal, state and local governments and their experts are keeping close eyes on the health metrics from around the state at a micro-scale. Everything is looking good for the next re-opening phases that are scheduled for several weeks out in the early summer.
As best as anyone can tell right now, we are a "go" for the full Pate Swap Meet, as planned, for our October 1 - 3, 2020 dates.
Last Thursday evening, May 28th, the AACA Hershey Region Executive Board announced publically that the 2020 Hershey Fall Meet has been canceled. In full, their announcement from http://hershey.aaca.com/ states:
It is with great regret that the AACA Hershey Region Executive Board informs you that the 2020 Hershey Fall Meet has been canceled. This decision was not arrived at lightly. Our Club prides itself on producing a world-class event that thousands of people anticipate every year, so we felt the heaviest of burdens when faced with this decision.
While making the difficult choice to cancel, the Board took many obstacles into account, including but not limited to: the health and welfare of our volunteers, vendors, partners, and visitors; the unknown restrictions and/or guidelines that may be in place at the time of our show; and the volunteer-only workforce we rely on to prepare for a show of our magnitude.
We appreciate you understanding how difficult this decision was for the Executive Board to make. We know that some people will be upset by the decision and others will applaud it. Either way, please know that the Hershey Region Executive Board has acted in what they believe are the best interests of the Club, and we ask for your continued support as we navigate these unprecedented times.
Refund information will be sent very soon in regard to all payments already received by the Hershey Region AACA.
Please know that we continue to explore ideas to benefit the hobby and are working toward the possibility of still hosting our usual car show on Saturday in October. While this may not be doable, AACA and the Hershey Region along with other constituencies are working hard to make this possible. Please visit our website and social media as often as possible for the latest news.
Hershey Region AACA
We fully support the decision of the Hershey Region AACA to cancel their Fall event. The Hershey Region Executive Board MUST act as they see fit in their understanding and interpretation of their local conditions and circumstances as well as the advice they receive from local officials. We understand the difficulty of such decisions because we were in the same situation ourselves when we were forced to postpone our Sring dates and reschedule just a few months ago. We stand in solidarity with the Hershey Region AACA!
Since the Hershey Fall Meet was scheduled to occur the week after our recently-rescheduled October dates of the Pate Swap Meet, the Hershey Region AACA announcement has naturally triggered a lot of our vendors and visitors to inquire about our status. We are making this announcement to let everybody know about our status so there is no misunderstanding.
To repeat the headline above: we are still a "go" for our October 1 - 3, 2020 dates!
In summary, the outcomes between Hershey and Pate are different because our local conditions are different. The local conditions for COVID-19 in Texas and our region are much better than in Pennsylvania and its region. The local conditions in Texas and particularly in Tarrant and Denton Counties (the immediate area around the venue) are very good as reported by our state and local health agencies.
COVID-19 Cases1 in Texas: 65,593
COVID-19 Cases1 in Penn: 76,646
COVID-19 Deaths1 in Texas: 1,683
COVID-19 Deaths1 on Penn: 5,567
The population of Texas2: 28,995,881
The population of Penn2: 12,801,989
COVID-19 Cases as % of Pop. in Texas: 0.226%
COVID-19 Cases as % of Pop. in Penn: 0.599%
COVID-19 Deaths as % of Pop. in Texas: 0.006%
COVID-19 Deaths as % of Pop. in Penn: 0.043%
Simple Mortality Rate (Deaths/Cases) in Texas: 2.57%
Simple Mortality Rate (Deaths/Cases) in Penn: 7.26%
1 As reported by Johns Hopkins University, June 2, 2020
2 Estimated as of July 1, 2019, as reported by Wikipedia
As you can see in the data above, the COVID-19 impact in Pennsylvania is much greater than in Texas with 2.65-times the number of cases per capita and 7.49-times the number of deaths per capita with the simple mortality rate 2.83-time higher. Empirical interpretation of the data is that the impact in Pennsylvania is both broader and more severe. In light of data like this, it would appear that the Hershey Region AACA showed a great deal of wisdom and courage in canceling its event.
Fortunately, we are in a different set of circumstances in Texas and circumstances that appears to also be further improving.
There are regional differences. Texas is far less impacted than the northeastern part of the United States. Plus, leading indicators such as hospitalization that are predictive of future issues are down in Texas indicating that further openings will be occurring in Texas without problems.
Yes, we are indeed blessed. But, yes, we are still keeping a watchful eye on all of the health metrics.
Re-openings in Texas continues to expand. However, the phased re-opening plan in Texas is subject to the "ground-truth" of various monitored health statistics collected and reported by local health agencies. As long as the monitored health metrics remain within their proper bounds and trend in the anticipated direction, protocols will be further loosened and re-openings will be expanded.
The full plan for re-opening Texas can be seen here. Please note the updates to the plan where they occur in the PDF.
In general, most of Texas hit the 50% capacity limits last week and a few institutions were allowed to go to 100% of capacity. Most re-openings are practicing the State of Texas minimum recommended health protocols and also other requirements imposed by local jurisdictions. It is anticipated that most of the state will be back to normal (or near-normal) in June or early July (subject to future evaluation.) Texas Governor Greg Abbott has stated publicly that he expects that Texas public schools will open on-time for their Fall term in mid-August for physically-present in-school instruction.
Unless the government institutes another lockdown because of some unexpected turn in the monitored health metrics, the Pate Swap Meet will be conducted on October 1 - 3, 2020 as planned.
We do NOT anticipate the need to cancel!
The October 1-3 dates are still four months out. There is still plenty of time to see how this plays out. Right now, it looks like we’ll be fine. However, with all of the people looking at the situation and collecting/reporting data, if there is are problems that crop up, we will have plenty of time to see it and react in the most appropriate way.
We are paying close attention to the data and the advice of government officials and health experts. We will react if there is a need to react. As of today, we are still a "go" for a full swap meet.
To keep everyone informed about the future reporting of the forthcoming health data monitoring the re-opening of Texas, we have established a page to post continuous updates of new data as it is made available. We expect to update this page every two weeks for the next several weeks or until the situation stabilizes. This page will be very dynamic. Please check it often.